Week 4 NFL Picks

Running a bit behind this week, so I’m going to be brief.

Week 3 Record: 7-9
YTD Record: 22-25-1

Not very good. Oh well. I blame the replacement refs!

Thursday September 27

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-12)

Hard to see where the first Browns win comes from, and it certainly won’t be tonight. Baltimore shouldn’t have much of a problem winning this one handily.

Sunday September 30

Tennessee @ Houston (-13.5)

Just a few too many points.

San Diego @ Kansas City (pick)

Still clinging to my pre-season Kansas City love here.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-7)

I’m on the Atlanta bandwagon now. That defense is a new beast, and at home they shouldn’t have problems with the Panthers and their pretty porous defense.

Seattle (-1) @ St. Louis 

I think this will be a very close game. St. Louis is a good home team, and Seattle probably won’t be a good road team this year. The conventional wisdom suggests that Seattle should win this, but I think the Rams can pull of the minor upset here.

San Francisco (-4) @ New York Jets

San Francisco will bounce back strong after an unacceptable loss. Without Revis, I’d imagine the San Fran pass game will be able to click a bit better than last week.

New England (-4) @ Buffalo

1-3 can’t happen. It’s just impossible, right? Yeah, it is…

Minnesota @ Detroit (-4.5)

The Lions are 0-3 against the spread, but I’d imagine if this game took place a week or more ago they’d be 8+ point favorites. The line is fair, but I think Detroit bounces back at home and gets things going ago. If that front 4 can get pressure on Ponder, they should be fine, even with their atrocious secondary, and I think those motors up front will be revving.

Miami @ Arizona (-7)

I think it’s pretty reasonable to assume that this game goes over the 39 too. That’s a really low total, and while the Cardinals defense is spectacular and the Miami offense isn’t, I think there will be a good amount of scoring.

Oakland @ Denver (-7)

7 points is just a tad too high.

Cincinnati (-1) @ Jacksonville

My gut tells me this is obvious.

Washington @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)

Josh Freeman has been awful this season, but he’ll be going against perhaps the worst pass defense in the league. Meanwhile, Tampa’s run defense is the best in the league currently, and considering that’s Washington’s strength, it seems like a good match up for them.

New Orleans @ Green Bay (-9)

0-4 seems inevitable, but I think NO can keep this close to one score. 9 points seems just a tad high to me.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia (pick)

Turnovers won’t cut it against the Giants, and the Giants pass rush should create a few.

Monday October 1

Chicago @ Dallas (-3)
Over/Under 41

A really intriguing match up. Both offenses have struggled this year, while the defenses have been top notch. I think there’s a good chance this game goes under (41). I have more confidence picking that than a winner (I’d give the slight nod to Dallas).

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