Weekly Football picks (10/4 – 10/8)
October 5, 2012 Leave a comment
I’m having much more success with my actual bets than these picks. Last week was a disaster here, especially for my college picks where I went 7-12-1, bringing my YTD total well under .500. However, my more selective betting has been a bit more lucrative. I am up 13.5 units early on in this season (1 unit is 2% of my initial bankroll, and I will be consistent with that throughout the year). I’m no professional here, but for me that’s pretty solid. This has always just been for fun and a way for me to “publically” keep track of things. The stakes aren’t high.
I’m going to start from scratch again, just for score-keeping purposes. I’m a bit OCD. I cashed out all the money I have made from my initial deposit, and I’ll start back from square one. 50 units in the bank. There are no more rules. I pick as many games, for as many units, as I want. I’ll screen cap my picks for proof.
Utah (+13) vs. USC: 2 units
Yes, the game has already happened, but I think I made it pretty clear on twitter last night how much I loved this line. Perhaps I loved it a bit too much…because it looked like I was doomed. Luckily a garbage time TD saved the day!
Pittsburgh (+1.5) @ Syracuse: 1 unit
Both teams are coming off of an off week so they should be plenty rested and prepared. This game comes down to match ups for me. Syracuse’s biggest strength is Ryan Nassib and the passing game. Pitt, however, has a strong pass defense. They have done solid jobs in terms of stopping the pass in all four games this year (Munchie Legaux had a strong game, but the biggest blows came on the ground). Pittsburgh’s offense is a bit more well-balanced, especially since Tino Sunseri is finally playing some solid football. The run game is one of the most underrated in the country with Ray Graham and freshman phenom Rushel Shell. Syracuse’s run defense has been exposed at times this year, and there’s no reason to think that Pittsburgh won’t look to pound the ball and there’s no reason to think they can’t be successful at doing so. The Cuse secondary will be a bit thin as well without starting CB Brandon Reddish.
Northwestern (+1.5) @ Penn State: 2 units
My only hesitancy here is the fact that Northwestern hasn’t been tested on the road really at all this year. They did start the season off on the road at Syracuse and squeaked out a win, but their last 4 games have been comfortable home wins. Even so the Wildcats have more talent and especially more depth than the Nittany Lions. Penn State has found their footing after a disastrous start, but the level of competition hasn’t been much to write home about. Northwestern have had major contributions from a plethora of offensive weapons this year, and game planning for that offense isn’t an easy task. Their receiving corps is tremendous, and they have a ton of different ways they can run the ball against you. Penn State, conversely, has little to no big play potential. They have no running plays over 20 yards this season (averaging 3.6 yards a rush) and only one passing play over 30 yards (a 45 yard TD pass to Allen Robinson). The big play potential vastly favors the Wildcats. I think NW is for real…or at least real enough to beat PSU in Happy Valley.
Oklahoma (-5) @ Texas Tech: 1 unit
Texas Tech hasn’t played anyone worth a damn this year, so them being 11th in the country in points scored and 5th in points allowed should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Oklahoma had the week off after a tough loss against KSU, so I think they’ll come into this focused and ready to go, even if Texas is on deck.
Purdue (+3) vs Michigan: 1 unit
The country will learn how good Purdue really is after they win this weekend. They have an incredibly balanced offense that Michigan will struggle to slow and a defense, despite giving up 41 to Marshall (a great offensive team), that can go toe-to-toe with most anyone in the Big 10.
Tulsa @ Marhshall over 69.5: 2 units
Speaking of Marshall’s offense, go with the over here. Two offenses that are really clicking going against two defenses that really aren’t. The total has inched up already, and should continue to do so.
WVU (+7) @ Texas: 2 units
Malcolm Brown goes down and the line – that I already loved – doesn’t shift at all. This almost looks too obvious to me. If Texas’ defense was actually liking like it should (it can’t get any sort of pass rush) I’d say that they’d win. Thing is, the defense isn’t playing well and WVU’s offense is just too lethal right now.
Georgia (+1) @ South Carolina: 1 unit
I think there’s too much firepower for Georgia offensively. Sure, their defense has looked a bit suspect, but it’s getting healthier and I think I can get enough stops to eek out the win.
And onto the NFL…
Atlanta (-3) @ Washington: 1 unit
Atlanta is 2-0 ATS on the road, and apparently Vegas still isn’t impressed. I might be underestimating Washington, but I am a believer that Atlanta is the real deal, and they haven’t shown any weakness on the road this year.
Everything else scares me, for now.
Total: 13 units wagered this week. Enjoy the games!