Weekly Football Picks (10/11-10/15)

It was a good weekend for me, in more ways than one. I had a solid week where I hit on 6 of 9 bets. I took a min-vacation to Bloomington/Indianapolis and saw the Colts beat the Packers in exciting fashion. I’m not terribly surprised with any of the losses I posted this week. I’m a bit surprised that Georgia got demolished, and even though I thought their offense would do better, they were playing a great team on the road. In hindsight, I’d probably just avoid that game. Northwestern over Penn State might have had some internal bias in it that skewed that pick. I was flat out wrong about Purdue.

Wins:

Utah (+13) vs. USC: 2 units
Pittsburgh (+1.5) @ Syracuse:  1 unit
Oklahoma (-5) @ Texas Tech: 1 unit
Tulsa @ Marhshall over 69.5: 2 units
WVU (+7) @ Texas: 2 units
Atlanta (-3) @ Washington: 1 unit

+9 units

Losses:

Northwestern (+1.5) @ Penn State: 2 units
Purdue (+3) vs Michigan: 1 unit
Georgia (+1) @ South Carolina: 1 unit

-4 units

+5 units on the week

YTD: + 5 units

————————-

Northwestern (-3.5) @ Minnesota: 1 unit

The Golden Gophers have come a long way, and will win a few conference games this year, but they haven’t quite come this far. Northwestern has to bounce back strong in this one, and I still think they are far more talented than what they showed last week against Penn State.

Stanford (+7.5) @ Notre Dame: 1 unit

My gut said that this line seemed a bit large. The more I thought about it, the more I started to second guess that notion. However, I’m going to stick with my gut here. Notre Dame’s defense should have no problems stopping the Cardinal offense consistently, but I’m not so certain their offense will cruise either. I think this stays relatively close. 7.5 points just seems a tad high.

Oregon State (+6) @ BYU: 1 unit

I think BYU wins this, but I’m going to take the points. Oregon State isn’t the 10th best team in the country, like their ranking suggests, but they clearly are solid, and clearly can win on the road. BYU’s home field advantage is pretty tremendous however. I think that’s enough to get them the win, but it figures to be close.

West Virginia (-4) @ Texas Tech: 2 units

West Virginia has been good to me, and I don’t see them slowing. Texas Tech will pile up the points, but WVU will do so at a more efficient rate, even against a slightly better defense than what they’ve faced recently.

Utah State (+3.5) @ San Jose State: 2 units

Utah State’s defense is spectacular, and while they are 4-2, those two road losses were really close (within 3.5 points) against solid teams (better than San Jose State at least) with better home field advantages.

South Carolina (+3) @ LSU: 1 unit

Trying to not talk myself out of it….

Tennessee (+3) @ Mississippi State: 1 unit

The Vols have to turn it around. The Bulldogs’ defense is formidable, but this is an absolutely must win game for Tennessee, and I think they’ll find a way. Maybe this is just a hunch, I don’t know. The Bulldogs are 5-0, but don’t have a single impressive win.

——–

Steelers (-6) @ Titans: 2 units

The Titans are really, really, really bad…and Pittsburgh’s defense is slowly getting more and more healthy. I can’t see how the Titans slow the Steelers’ pass offense, and I can’t see how they find much success on offense themselves.

Colts (+3) @ Jets: 1 unit

I was at the Colts game last weekend. Maybe I’m just being a prisoner of the moment, but that defense looked really solid late in the game and Andrew Luck looked phenomenal.

Patriots (-4) @ Seahawks: 3 units

A good old great offense versus a great defense match up. I’ll take the offense in today’s NFL. Also, I’m sure Bill can find enough ways to stifle Russell Wilson. The Patriots run defense, and I have zero hesitancy in saying this, is very good this year. It’s a good match up for them.

Texans (-3) vs Packers: 2 units

The Texans are the better team right now, and they’re at home. Seems pretty simple to me.

And, I have just noticed that I have unintentionally taken only road teams to cover, except for the Texans. That’s a bad omen…and probably shows that I have a slight bias towards road teams/little regard towards home field advantage. We’ll see how this plays out. Last week, 5 out of 6 of my winners were road teams (as were 7 of my 9 total picks), something I didn’t notice until now either.

11 bets total, 17 units wagered

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