Weekly Football Picks

Wins:

Syracuse (-4.5) vs. Connecticut: 1 unit
Rutgers (-5) @ Temple: 1 unit
LSU (-3.5) @ Texas A&M: 1 unit
Kansas State (+3) @ WVU: 1 unit
Kentucky (+28) vs. Georgia: 1 unit
Seattle (+9) @ San Francisco: 1 unit
New Orleans (-3) @ Tampa: 1 unit
New York Jets (+11) @ New England: 1 unit

Losses:

South Carolina (+3.5) @ Florida: 1 unit
Buffalo (-3) vs. Tennessee: 1 unit

Push:

Chicago (-6) vs. Detroit: 1 unit

Week: 8-2-1

YTD: 19-11-1 (+6 units)

This Week’s picks:

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Weekly Football Picks (10/11-10/15)

It was a good weekend for me, in more ways than one. I had a solid week where I hit on 6 of 9 bets. I took a min-vacation to Bloomington/Indianapolis and saw the Colts beat the Packers in exciting fashion. I’m not terribly surprised with any of the losses I posted this week. I’m a bit surprised that Georgia got demolished, and even though I thought their offense would do better, they were playing a great team on the road. In hindsight, I’d probably just avoid that game. Northwestern over Penn State might have had some internal bias in it that skewed that pick. I was flat out wrong about Purdue.

Wins:

Utah (+13) vs. USC: 2 units
Pittsburgh (+1.5) @ Syracuse:  1 unit
Oklahoma (-5) @ Texas Tech: 1 unit
Tulsa @ Marhshall over 69.5: 2 units
WVU (+7) @ Texas: 2 units
Atlanta (-3) @ Washington: 1 unit

+9 units

Losses:

Northwestern (+1.5) @ Penn State: 2 units
Purdue (+3) vs Michigan: 1 unit
Georgia (+1) @ South Carolina: 1 unit

-4 units

+5 units on the week

YTD: + 5 units

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Northwestern (-3.5) @ Minnesota: 1 unit

The Golden Gophers have come a long way, and will win a few conference games this year, but they haven’t quite come this far. Northwestern has to bounce back strong in this one, and I still think they are far more talented than what they showed last week against Penn State.

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Weekly Football picks (10/4 – 10/8)

I’m having much more success with my actual bets than these picks. Last week was a disaster here, especially for my college picks where I went 7-12-1, bringing my YTD total well under .500. However, my more selective betting has been a bit more lucrative. I am up 13.5 units early on in this season (1 unit is 2% of my initial bankroll, and I will be consistent with that throughout the year). I’m no professional here, but for me that’s pretty solid. This has always just been for fun and a way for me to “publically” keep track of things. The stakes aren’t high.

I’m going to start from scratch again, just for score-keeping purposes. I’m a bit OCD. I cashed out all the money I have made from my initial deposit, and I’ll start back from square one. 50 units in the bank. There are no more rules. I pick as many games, for as many units, as I want. I’ll screen cap my picks for proof.

Here goes…

 

Utah (+13) vs. USC: 2 units

Yes, the game has already happened, but I think I made it pretty clear on twitter last night how much I loved this line. Perhaps I loved it a bit too much…because it looked like I was doomed. Luckily a garbage time TD saved the day!

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College Football Week 5 Predictions

Last week: 9-11
Year to date: 38-41-1

Still under .500. I only made 3 real bets this week. I bet two units on Kansas State (-14), one unit on Kansas State money line, and one unit on Arizona (+24). I’ll call that a tiny, but very successful, little week.

Less talking, less thinking, more gut. That’s my new motto.

Thursday, September 27

Stanford (-7) @ Washington

I’m a big Keith Price fan, and the Huskies are usually pretty solid at home, but they have a banged up offensive line and that Cardinal defense will take advantage of that. I guess you could make the argument that this is a trap game, but they’ll have had a few weeks off to forget about their big win and focus on the schedule ahead of them.

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College Football Week 4 Predictions

Week 3: 11-8-1
Year to Date: 29-30-1

Was worried for a little bit there. After my first eight picks I was 1-7. I bounced back well to post an even week. There’s still plenty of time to get my record to 55%-60%. We’ll see. I’m going to start including the games that I actually am betting on as well in these picks.

I was very surprised to see Michigan State get manhandled by the Irish. I knew their offense was a bit one dimensional, but I had no idea ND’s defense would suffocate them so much. Of my preseason “sleepers”, only Kansas State remains. Obviously there were other shockers too, most notably  USC losing to Stanford, Pittsburgh pummeling Virginia Tech and even the mini-upset of Florida over Tennessee, which even I didn’t expect.

This week conference play is almost in full swing.

Thursday September 20

BYU @ Boise State (-7.5) 

Boise State just doesn’t lose at home. The team has lost 3 games at home since 1999, and their loss to TCU at home last year was their first regular season home loss since 2001.

We will learn a lot about these two teams on Thursday. Both have losses to respectable (though now one-loss) teams and rather unimpressive wins early on. For Boise, this is one of their last remaining chances at a quality win with MWC play on the horizon. For BYU, they have 6 tough games in a row coming up, so back-to-back losses here would be brutal. Boise playing at home and playing perhaps their last game on national television this season will seek to make a statement. DJ Harper needs to play well for this to happen, and that might be a tall task against this strong Cougar defense. He struggled mightily against MSU (perhaps one of the 5 best defenses in the country) and they won’t win again unless he puts forth a better effort. He was unstoppable against Miami (OH) and I think he keeps the momentum going. BYU will struggle to score on this Boise defense, and Harper and Southwick play solid mistake-free football and take away the win.

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College Football Week 3 Predictions

I fared a bit better this week. It looks like I was very wrong about Utah and it looks safe to say that Wisconsin, Nebraska and Arkansas are not nearly as good as we thought they were. Week 3 brings us a few more big games than the previous weeks, but some top teams are still playing cupcakes (Oregon, LSU, Georgia, etc.).

Week 2 Record: 11-9
Year to Date: 18-22

Thursday, September 13

Rutgers @ South Florida (-8)

The line has shrank a bit, perhaps due to some injuries at running back and the loss of WR Sterling Griffin for the season. It’s hard to determine how impressive USF’s win at Nevada really was. On one hand it was a distant road game against a team that upset California at home, but on the other hand, they just didn’t look very good for most of the game. Initially my gut said to go with USF, especially because it seems that BJ Daniels finally has a favorite target, but I’m not so in love with their defense and I think Rutgers is a bit better than people give them credit for being. All the travel for USF I think will catch up to them a little. The line is just a little too high for me. 

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College Football Week 2 Predictions

Week one, as predicted, was predictably awful. I usually don’t dabble in many early season out-of-conference games.

Week 1 Record: 7-13

Not off the the greatest of starts. Oh well, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.

The week one games weren’t full of many competitive games between good teams, and week two looks like we’ll see much more of the same. I’m going to change things up a bit from here on out. Instead of picking every top-25 game with a line, I’m going to omit some of the games that I look at the line and just shake my head. I’ll be a bit more selective. This also will allow me to add some more tasty non-top-25 games too. These huge point spreads aren’t fun to me.

A reminder: all lines are from 5dimes, my picks are colored and all lines are as of Wednesday.

Western Kentucky @ Alabama (-40)

Well, Alabama beat Michigan by 27 points. So, they should be able to handle Western Kentucky pretty handily, right? Western Kentucky is a pretty awful team. I think Bama covers.

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